Thundersnow/new rocket for NASA
February 9, 2011
Thundersnow is possibly the coolest-sounding meteorological term I can think of. It happens very rarely, but when it does it’s awesome. Convection strong enough to cause lighting during a snowstorm is simply amazing, as are most things that rare. Through a ridiculous stroke of luck, scientists in Huntsville, AL got a rare opportunity to study this bizarre phenomenon in-depth. As you may know, Huntsville is home to NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. There are meteorologists and other scientists there with a barrage of better-than-average instruments that monitored the inner-workings of the snowstorm that hit the area Jan. 9th. They got the most thorough data ever recorded for thundersnow, and observed one bolt of lightning that traveled a whopping 50 miles horizontally before hitting the ground. The fact that such a rare and interesting phenomenon happened right on top of a facility so well-equipped to study it is quite remarkable, and those scientists were very excited to be able to study the thundersnow in such great detail. I look forward to seeing what is learned from this experience. (Via Discovery News)
NASA has been presented with yet another viable commercial option for replacing the Space Shuttle’s role of ferrying astronauts to and from the space station, as well as carrying cargo. A U.S. company called Alliant Techsystems teamed up with Europe’s Astrium to draft the proposal for a new rocket called Liberty. This new rocket would combine research of the now-dead Constellation program with the proven components of the European Space Agency’s Ariane 5 launch system. Since this collaborative effort combines mostly well-proven technology, it would be both cheap and relatively quick to build, shortening the problematic gap between the last Space Shuttle flight and the first availability of commercial access to space. If it truly will shorten said gap, I’m all for it. I hope it’s really as good as it sounds, but things like this always run into unforseen problems/delays. Right now, SpaceX still has the edge simply because it’s already had 2 very successful tests of its launch system, the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon capsule. But Liberty could give SpaceX a run for their money. Check out the promo video below. (Via Universe Today)
Planetary scale/arctic oscillation/what is 4G?
February 2, 2011
Some cool science-related stuff I’ve come across the past few days:
- Let’s be frank, the climatologists were absolutely dead wrong in their prediction of a warmer-than-average winter in the eastern US for 2010/2011. Their forecast was based on the fact that historically, La Nina winters are warmer in the eastern US. We are definitely in a La Nina winter, so what the hell has been going on? The fact is, the global climate is VERY complex, and our computer models for both short-term and long-term forecasting are still struggling to get a grasp on what’s really going to happen. The main culprit for our cold winter this year is the Arctic Oscillation. This is another large-scale weather pattern that is fairly unpredictable over the long-term, and has so far overpowered any effects the La Nina pattern has had on the southeast US. The Nashville office of the National Weather Service has been posting fairly frequent updates about this situation, so I recommend reading the latest one to get the detailed explanation you may or may not be desiring. It would appear that winter will be re-establishing its grip on TN for a few more weeks at least.
- In the past year all the major mobile phone service providers have been touting their new 4G networks. But honestly none them have speeds even close to what was traditionally defined as “4G.” The International Telecommunication Union has a set of standards for what speeds can be considered 2G, 3G, 4G, and so on. 4G used to be defined as download speeds of 100 Mbps to 1Gbps. Those kinds of speeds won’t be attained for 4 to 5 years, by most estimates. In December of 2009, the ITU changed the rules on what can be called 4G, which allowed all mobile phone service providers to instantly start labeling their slightly improved wireless broadband speeds as such. Most of these speeds are probably better described as “3.5G” or “3G+” but I honestly don’t care. I just don’t want people to think that the speeds they’ll experience on their mobile browsers is somehow leaps & bounds faster. This information came from an article on Wired that I recommend if you want more detailed info.
- I came across this amazing video clip on Universe Today on Monday, but am just now getting around to posting. The sense of scale when talking in astronomical terms is very difficult for a human mind to comprehend, so when things like this come along that really help illustrate that sense of scale, I’m fascinated. This video clip shows what several different planets, including another earth, would look like in the night sky if they were as close to us as the moon. Just wait until Jupiter shows up. (According to the comment from the creator below the video, this is actually what it would look like through a weak pair of binoculars… so what you’re seeing isn’t meant to depict the entire night sky, only about 62 degrees of it.) Be sure to click on the HD button and make it full screen.
White Christmas possible in TN this year
December 22, 2010
I’ve been holding off on blogging about this, but since I’m heading out of town tomorrow, I feel I must mention it today. There’s actually a decent chance of some measurable snowfall on Christmas day this year not only in Nashville, but in most of TN, and even some states south of TN. Here are the official statistics on a white Christmas in Nashville, from the National Weather Service:
THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY NINE CHRISTMASES WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW SINCE SNOWFALL RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN NASHVILLE BACK IN THE WINTER OF 1884 AND 1885. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN NASHVILLE WAS IN 1993 WHEN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH WAS MEASURED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS IN 2002. STATISTICALLY THERE IS ONLY A 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON ANY GIVEN CHRISTMAS. THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL ON CHRISTMAS IN NASHVILLE IS 2.7 INCHES IN 1969.
The storm system that has been contributing to the unusual rainfall in southern California will be sliding across the southwestern states today and tomorrow, and joining with an upper level disturbance from the north. The upper level disturbance will be providing the cold, while the low pressure system to the south will be providing the moisture. As the two combine, moisture will be spread north of the low pressure system over the gulf coast on southerly winds, which will bring enough warm air to change the precip to rain on Christmas eve day, but that night the cold air from the upper disturbance will take over and switch it back to snow, which should continue into at least Christmas morning. From what I’ve read, the models are in fair agreement on the timing of the whole thing, but not on the amount of moisture (read: depth of snow) involved. So we’ll have to wait until probably this time tomorrow, or even tomorrow night to really get a good grip on snow amounts. Even then, models can only go so far. I wouldn’t get my hopes up for any “deep” snow though, I’d be very surprised if Nashville got more than 2 inches. I will be with my family in northeast TN, so this will all happen about 6 hours later than Nashville, but naturally there will probably be a little more snow there, and I have every intention of taking a trip to the mountains where there’ll be a lot more snow. Maybe even go skiing.
I may find something to blog about over the weekend, but this will probably be my last post until next week. So Happy Holidays!
Lunar eclipse + solstice tonight, not visible in Nashville due to clouds
December 20, 2010
Credit: Fred Espenak/NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
You must’ve heard about this by now, but I’ll mention it to make sure you know: there’s a full lunar eclipse happening tonight, and it just so happens that it’s also the winter solstice, a.k.a. the shortest day/longest night of the year. Just a coincidence, but a relatively rare one. Lunar eclipses aren’t super-rare- we get one about once every 2-3 years, but they can be pretty spectacular if the earth’s atmospheric conditions cast an eerie orange-red hue on the moon. There’s no way to know if that will happen for sure, but from my experience it happens more often than not. Unfortunately there’s a very good chance it will cloudy and/or raining tonight in middle TN, but if you’re elsewhere, good luck! It starts at about 1:30am EST, that’s 12:30am central, 11:30pm mountain, and 10:30pm pacific. For more details and a good rundown of what to expect, visit Bad Astronomy, and for a good explanation of the red/orange hue, visit this NASA article.
And I can’t help but post this comic from xkcd: I agree 100%
How ice storms work/today will not be ice-mageddon
December 15, 2010
If you’re in Nashville you’re no doubt sitting around waiting for this massive ice-mageddon that is supposed to happen today. Make no mistake, ice storms can be extremely dangerous when they actually happen, but more often than not they end up being far less severe than initially forecast. This is because these types of storms are incredibly complex and the most difficult of all weather phenomena to forecast. Here’s how they work, and why I’m usually skeptical of forecasts involving them:
When an ice storm happens there is always a strong mass of cold air in place (just look at how cold it was yesterday and monday!). Then a low pressure system moves in from the south or southwest, creating a mid-level wind flow from the south or southwest. Mid-level in meteorology is loosely defined as 5,000-10,000 or so feet above sea level. This southerly wind flow brings both warm air and moisture with it, creating a layer of warmer air above the cold air at ground level. This means the precipitation starts out high up as snow or rain, then becomes all rain as it falls through the warmer layer, then refreezes when it gets to the stubborn layer of cold air at the surface. Depending on the thickness of this cold layer, the rain drops will freeze while falling (sleet), or will freeze upon contact with the ground (freezing rain). Usually in these situations, the surface temperature is right at or just below freezing. This freezing precipitation only lasts as long as the cold layer stays below freezing, and that surface layer always eventually warms up. Here’s a graphic I’ve posted on this blog before, to illustrate:
Based on the forecast models, and published forecasts I’ve seen, there’s no doubt Nashville will see some frozen precip today, but I have a feeling that it will change to all rain, and the surface temp will creep up to the mid 30’s by late afternoon or so. The current forecast calls for the ice to remain the longest in the northeastern counties of middle TN, so those folks may see enough accumulation to start downing trees and power lines. I doubt there will be enough accumulation for that to be a major problem in Nashville, and all areas south and west. I’m fairly certain that Nashville’s heat island effect will aid in getting the surface temps up sooner rather than later. Furthermore, most roads have been salted heavily, and even the secondary roads have some salt on them transplanted by car tires, and with the surface temp hovering right around freezing the salt will have no problem preventing ice on the roads. Since the temperature is forecast to continue rising as the night goes on, due to the warmer air in the mid-levels working its way down, there shouldn’t be any problems at all by midnight or so.
PLEASE DON’T THINK THAT I’M TELLING YOU TO DRIVE NORMALLY IN WINTER WEATHER. YOU SHOULD ALWAYS ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WHEN THERE’S A CHANCE OF WINTRY ROAD CONDITIONS. PLEASE BE CAREFUL, ESPECIALLY IF CROSSING A BRIDGE OR OVERPASS AS THOSE FREEZE MUCH EASIER.
What I’m saying here is that this will NOT be ice-mageddon. For Nashville at least.
Weekend in Nashville/snowpocalypse redux
December 10, 2010
As always, I must shamelessly self-promote for a minute. Tonight my band POWERBRRRD is playing at The End along with Big Surr, Diarrhea Planet, Evan P. Donohue, and Casa Castille. 5 bands? Yes, 5 bands, BUT rest assured that every band on this bill has a setlist of 30 minutes or less. In fact, POWERBRRRD’s set will probably barely crack 20 minutes. This show will be a conglomeration of insanity, I promise. And it will only set you back 5 bones. Also, Joaquin Phoenix will be there. (Oh, and sorry, Michael Eades. At least we advertised all 5 bands from the get-go!)
Now for some other shows that I recommend:
FRIDAY:
Ok, if you MUST go to something else tonight, my pick would be Howlies, with Oblio and Field Days at the Basement. 9pm, 21+ $??? Also, there’s an afterparty for that show at Mercy Lounge.
SATURDAY:
Natural Child, Ex Humans, The Cannomen, Foster Care, and Cy Barkley at Glen Danzig’s House. $5, 7pm
SUNDAY:
Cold War Kids at Third Man Records. I can’t find a time anywhere but it’s probably something like 7pm.
AXWY, Shoot the Mountain, Tallest Trees at the 5 Spot. 9pm, 21+ $5. (AXWY is an bloopy, glitchy, Postal Service-esque project started by Ryan Malina about a year ago. He put out an album that was quite good, but to my knowledge hasn’t played the material live until now.)
It’s also worth noting that the Scene has posted their yearly local Rock ‘n Roll Poll. The “outtakes and extended jams” is worth a read too.
You may have heard that Nashville is supposed to get a little snow this weekend. I’ll throw my official weather nerd opinion in the hat: DON’T FREAK OUT. It’s not going to be #snowpocalypse2010redux. What they’re forecasting is maybe an inch late Saturday night into Sunday morning. I’d say Nashville itself will get a dusting at best. This is one of those systems where the low pressure is well to the north of us, and the cold front is swinging around to the south, hitting us. There will rain/warmer weather ahead of the front as it pushed west-to-east, but very little moisture behind the front. I’d say the rain will change to snow late Saturday night as they predict, but again, no more than a dusting in Nashville. I hope I’m wrong, as I’m actually a fan of snow, but history says to take official forecast amounts with grain of salt. (Haha, get it? Salt melts snow. Haha…)
Have a great weekend!
Sun sends blast of particles due to arrive tonight
August 3, 2010
The above image was taken just as our Sun belched a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in our direction on sunday night. This blob of charged particles are already beginning to interact with the earth’s magentosphere, and will likely result in some spectacular aurorae for the northern latitudes as the brunt of it arrives tonight and tomorrow morning. This is the first large scale activity the Sun has seen in several years, as it has been at the low-point of its 11-year cycle of sunspot activity. Events like this will slowly become more common over the next 3 or 4 years as the sun reaches its next peak in activity around 2012-2013. This is NOT any kind of major disaster, though it may cause a few glitches with satellites, as any CME event is prone to do. Unfortunately TN is way too far south to see any of the auroral activity, but if you’re in the northern US you might be able to see it. It is possible for aurorae to be seen this far south, but it’s very rare and requires a very powerful solar storm, such as the one from April 2001 (the last solar maximum) which made aurorae visible as far south as Texas. Such an event is possible as we head toward this next solar maximum, but I wouldn’t count on it. This upcoming maximum is expected to be about half as intense as the last one. (Via Space.com and Universe Today.
Here’s a video of the current CME when it first erupted sunday night.
Some random weather tidbits
July 26, 2010
I find it interesting that while this July is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record (duh, just walk outside), just 1 year ago we were experiencing one of the coolest Julys on record. More on that at the National Weather Service.
That cool summer was followed by a cool winter as well, and though it’s hard to even think about snow right now, it was also one of the snowiest winters on record for most of the eastern US. I mentioned this once before, but a new study confirms the findings that last winter’s brutality was due to the convergence of 2 things- El Nino and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. The former usually brings more precipitation to the southeastern US, and the latter usually brings colder air to the southeastern US. (Via EurekAlert)
I haven’t mentioned beer on this blog in a while… so here’s whats up with my homebrewing endeavors: I currently have a batch of northern English brown ale in the bottles carbonating. Haven’t tasted it yet but they should be ready to drink this coming friday. I’m about to start another batch of the ESB/Pale Ale hybrid that I made in May. That was by far the best batch of beer I’ve made, and it will be the first one I’ve repeated. I’m still not to the point of all-grain brewing yet, as I haven’t built a mash tun. It’ll happen soon though.
Humidity myths/other science-y tidbits
June 29, 2010
If you live in TN, or even the southeast at all, you know damn well that it’s been hot and humid as hell lately. The entire southeast has been a sauna for several weeks in a row. You always hear people say stuff like, “man, it’s 90 degrees and 90% humidity out there!” Anyone with half a brain knows that’s a VAST exaggeration, but honestly the concept of humidity is a rather confusing one, and even some meteorologists don’t explain it very well. I’m not going to attempt to fully explain it because it’s already been done quite well at this Cincinnati meteorologist’s website. Please click through that link if you want a very detailed, but still in layman’s terms, explanation. Read on if you want my extremely condensed version.
Basically, in terms of actually knowing how much water vapor is in the air, relative humidity sucks. In order to really know how humid it is, and how uncomfortable you will be, look at the dew point. The dew point is simply the temperature at which the water vapor in the air will begin to condense. The higher the dew point, the more H2O is in the air. According to most charts that I’ve found, dew points in the 40-50 degree range feel very dry, like you would feel in a desert… Dew points between 50-60 degrees generally feel comfortable, dew points between 60-70 degrees are generally uncomfortable, and dew points 70+ degrees are utterly oppressive. Yesterday afternoon our dew point in Nashville was hovering around 70-72 degrees. Relative humidity takes into account the air temperature as well as the dew point, and the relationship between temperature and RH is inverse. That means that as the air temp goes up, the RH goes down. Of course the relationship between dew point and RH is converse. Again, if you want a really good, albeit long explanation then visit this website. Fortunately, TN is in for a bit of a relief from the oppressive conditions we’ve been enduring. Cold fronts during the summertime aren’t exactly “cold” though they do normally bring slightly cooler temps, but the main thing they usually bring is a drier airmass. The typical summer weather pattern in the southeast US often involves hot and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico being blown northward across the southeastern states, creating the conditions we’ve been experiencing the past few weeks. Sometimes, however, an airmass that originates over the northern US and Canada will make its way southward. That’s exactly what’s happening today, and the dew point is already falling (this morning it was 68, and right now at lunchtime it’s all the way down to 61!). This airmass is drier because it originated over a large area of land, rather than water. All forecast I’ve seen are in agreement that the dry weather will persist for at least a week, if not more, though the temps will creep back up into the 90s by this weekend. But 90 degree temps with a dew point of 60 is hella better than 90/70!
I must mention a couple of science news tidbits that pinged my radar today and yesterday…
The Obama Administration has announced a new national policy for aerospace that supports and guides the plans for NASA that were announced back in February. This is more of an over-arching “this is where we’re headed” type of policy, and it needed to be implemented to be in line with Obama’s NASA plans. Again, I fully agree with his desire to cancel the Constellation program, rely on the private space industry for low-earth orbit, and focus NASA on exploring beyond the moon. With this new policy, NASA basically has no choice but to use the plan unveiled in February. Hopefully this will get some of the opponents of Obama’s plan in Congress to STFU. But that’s probably a pipe dream. (Via Space.com)
The Large Hadron Collider in Geneva continues to creep closer and closer to its final goal of having the most intense proton collisions ever. Right now, Fermilab still holds the record for highest beam intensity, but the LHC just set a new record for overall number of proton collisions. It will be several more years before they have the LHC running at full capacity, but I have no doubt it will pay off. (Via Discovery News)
Bonnaroo weather/CMA bingo/no more posts this week
June 9, 2010
*This will be my last post this week, and today will be my last day of web presence until after Bonnaroo.*
As I’ve said before, I’m going to Bonnaroo this year. I’m not going the way I’ve gone the past 2 years, however, as the Scene/SouthComm is sending their staff photographers to cover it this year, obviously the result of a rough economy/tight budget. (They are full-time staff photographers, so in the end SouthComm isn’t having to pay them anymore than they would have already, whereas my work would be an extra expense to them since I’m freelance.) Let me say that I’m in no way irked at them for doing this, as they have to do what makes financial sense in these times especially, and if I were in their shoes, I’d probably do the same. Since they weren’t sending me, I had to work a little harder to acquire a pass, but I did. So, don’t expect any photos from me this year, as I won’t be able to get into the photo pits, and honestly don’t want to have to lug the expensive/heavy equipment around and keep up with it unless I have to. My only real goal is to see LCD Soundsystem, since this is expected to be their last year of live shows, ever.
I’ve heard a lot of ridiculous rumors that there’s going to be a monsoon in Manchester this year. THIS IS BALONEY. The weather forecast looks exactly like every other June forecast in TN has since the beginning of time. It’s going to be hot, humid, and there’s a slight chance (20-30%) of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. I’d say there will be at least 1 or 2 of those showers/storms that happen across Bonnaroo, but it will by no means equate to a monsoon. The cause of this rumor is probably the fact that most weather apps and “forecast-at-a-glance” sources don’t include the probability of precipitation (PoP). They just show a small icon that has the sun covered partially by a storm cloud, a few rain drops, and a lightning bolt. It still shows that icon, even if the PoP is only 10%. This is a problem in my opinion, because sadly the vast majority of people will probably look at those icons on each day and think that it means it’s going to rain all day, everyday. So if you’re going this year, of course be prepared for rain and mud- it’s going to rain at some point, but it’s not going to rain the whole time. Remember to drink plenty of water and you’ll be fine.
I must also point you to Nashvillest’s 2nd (I think) annual CMA Bingo card. With the “CMApocalypse” quickly approaching, this little bit of local humor/snark is all but necessary to keep your sanity if you’re a Nashvillian who hates this annual gathering of:
AND
Have a great rest of the week/Bonnaroo if you’re going, and I will see you here sometime next week.
steve cross loves music and science 